The market fundamentals supporting the operation of the tourism economy have not changed, and there is a great possibility for domestic tourism consumption to bottom out and rebound. According to a special survey conducted by China Tourism Academy (data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism) for urban and rural residents, most respondents judged that the epidemic "may expand further but is generally controllable". 71.5% of respondents said they will travel after the epidemic is over for a while and 20.7% said they will travel as soon as the epidemic is over. There is a growing belief that the pandemic will pass, and canceled travel plans will take place at a better time. Respondents in Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Henan, Guangxi, Fujian, Anhui, Inner Mongolia, Beijing, Shanxi, Hebei and other provinces are more eager to travel after the epidemic, and most of the respondents' travel is mainly restricted by time.

The industrial fundamentals guiding the development of tourism economy have not disappeared, and the momentum of self-repair and r&d innovation is gathering. According to a special survey conducted by China Tourism Academy for tourism supply side, the surveyed entrepreneurs and managers' overall expectation of the tourism industry for the whole year has shifted from pessimism half a month ago to pessimism and optimism. 54 percent of the respondents, think the risks are manageable, 24 percent think the risks vary with the capabilities of the company, and 21 percent think the risk is increasing and the number of companies that fail will increase. Half of the respondents estimated that the pandemic would knock 10 percentage points off the total annual tourism economy, but tourism would continue to lead the overall economy. The industry is more confident about the domestic market, with 26% expecting a quick recovery and 66% expecting a delay of 1-3 months. 70% said they will fully resume production and operation after the outbreak. In fact, with the development and reform, finance, business, culture and tourism and other macro policies and specific policies of local governments, tourism enterprises began to recover from the initial extreme pessimism and fear that they could not see the future, and gathered confidence again, and carried out various forms of self-help and mutual assistance actions. According to the recent public opinion in the industry, more and more tourism groups, small and medium-sized enterprises and start-up companies are no longer anxious and hope for government assistance, but in line with the concept of "enterprise self-help, industry mutual assistance, and government support", undertake common but differentiated responsibilities.

Based on the comprehensive analysis of the policy, demand and supply sides, China Tourism Academy does not think that the tourism economy in 2020 is too pessimistic, and the benchmark forecast continues to be relatively optimistic. We assume that the battle against COVID-19 will be won at the end of March or mid-April, from the end of May to the middle of June, and from the end of July to the middle of August, and who will terminate PHEIC three months later respectively. Through simulation calculation and professional evaluation, we have formed three judgments of optimism, benchmark and pessimism for the whole year's tourism economic operation. The benchmark results show that, due to the impact of COVID-19, the number of domestic tourists in the first quarter and the whole year of 2020 saw negative growth of 56% and 15.5% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 932 million. Domestic tourism revenue saw negative growth of 69% and 20.6% respectively, with a decline of 1.18 trillion yuan for the year. The number of inbound tourists in the first quarter and the whole year saw negative growth of 51.7% and 34.7%, while the international tourism revenue saw negative growth of 59.8% and 40.6%, representing a year-on-year decrease of 50.32 million and 53.4 billion us dollars, respectively. The number of outbound tourists in the first quarter and the whole year saw negative growth of 42.6% and 17.6% respectively, representing a year-on-year decrease of 27.63 million. Of course, we hope there will be an optimistic situation. The impact of the epidemic on the tourism market is mainly limited to the first quarter, so the above indicators and relevant data will be adjusted accordingly.

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